Rasool was expelled on Friday, by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Former South African ambassador to the United States Ebrahim Rasool was “clearly a red flag to a bull for the Trump administration” in terms of his profile and background, a fellow at the Wilson Centre for global affairs says.
“The original sin was him being appointed in the first place and if we wanted to set South Africa-US relations, he was clearly not the person to do it,” said Terence McNamee from the Wilson Centre.
Expulsion
Rasool was expelled on Friday by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Rubio wrote on Elon Musk’s social media platform X that Rasool “is no longer welcome in our great country” and that the country considers him “persona non grata”.
He described Rasool as a “race-baiting politician who hates America and hates Potus (the president of the United States)”.
Diplomacy
McNamee told eNCA Rasool was a diplomat, not an activist.
“He had one job to do and the reality is, the nature of diplomacy is you have to represent your country’s interests in states that leaders may be doing very, very bad things, that’s the nature of the game.
“So, although President Trump has been very, very disruptive, it is not in the nature of diplomacy to conduct himself the way that he has. I’m very confused as to whether anything was premeditated, but I don’t think it was,” McNamee said.
McNamee said the conference organisers are also to blame. “You should never let that stuff seep out into the public domain if you are organising an event of that nature.”
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Rasool on Trump policy
Rasool’s expulsion came after his participation in a seminar by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection on Trump’s policy stance on South Africa.
Rasool claimed that Trump (and, later, Musk) are leading a global white supremacist movement.
“I think what Donald Trump is doing is launching an assault on incumbency, those who are in power, by mobilising a supremacism against the incumbency, at home, and – I think I’ve illustrated – abroad as well,” Rasool said.
SA foreign policy
McNamee added that South Africa is not going to change its core foreign policies just because Trump has won a second term.
“If we look at the example of Canada, our [Canadian to US) ambassador, Kirsten Hillman, we are in a situation where Trump is threatening annexation of Canada, turning it into the 51st state, if you watch a clip of her, you see how calm and measured she is, not rising to provocations. That’s what diplomacy has to be in these periods of crisis.”
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US-SA relations declining
McNamee said South Africa has to take a historical perspective to repair the strained relations with the US.
“US-South Africa relations have been declining for about 20 years. Pretoria is perceived in Washington as very much as a thorn in the side of US national interests, whether that’s the government of Pretoria cosying up to Iran or Cuba, its stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, or Israel,” McNamee said.
“So, these relations have been declining for some time and, of course, in the past militated against a complete collapse, the anti-apartheid struggle, and then South Africa’s importance in terms of the G20, in terms of Brics.
“But all of that now is out the door. There really is a new sheriff in town with President Trump and so the old rules no longer apply. So, South Africa has to adjust to this very, very uncertain reality,” he said.
Who takes over?
McNamee said there is an expectation that US-SA relations are going to deteriorate further.
“I would expect that this latest incident is going to fortify those in Washington who want to punish South Africa further. So, of course the African Growth and Opportunity Act, but I would think perhaps individual sanctions on South Africans is a possibility.
“So, who do you bring into this maelstrom, this crisis management situation? Who has the stature and gravitas to handle this situation? Who would want it in the first place? But, if I was just to throw out one name, the only one that really occurs to me in the political landscape is someone like Trevor Manuel.
“Someone whose got vast international experience, whose hugely experienced in terms of global financial structures, talking to these kind of people at that level, he has the stature, gravitas. I’m not sure there are many people in South Africa that can fill that role at the moment other than someone like him,” McNamee said.
Sanctions
McNamee added that there is a high probability that the US will impose sanctions on South Africa and particular individuals.
“My own view is that, first we’ve moved way, way away from zero probability, anything is possible at this stage. Look at relationships around the world and the way the administration deals with Canada and other countries. Why would it have kid gloves with South Africa?
“I mean, the expectation should be that there’s going to be punitive measures that are going to be put against the [SA] administration. I would prepare for the worst, but we can’t give up. The international rules-based order is hopefully not over. We’re in trouble at the moment, but I think that we have to understand that we have to make the best of this new situation,” McNamee added.
SA Presidency spokesperson Vincent Magwenya said the expulsion of Rasool was regrettable, urging all relevant and impacted stakeholders to “maintain the established diplomatic decorum in their engagement with the matter”.
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