While the ANC readies its provincial machinery for elections, behind the scenes, ambitions are rising – and so are rivalries.
A series of elective provincial conferences will take place this year to enable the ANC’s structures to prepare for the 2026 local government elections.
But the process could rekindle power tension among the leadership, especially for the top five office bearers.
Northern Cape escaped the fighting after holding its hassle-free conference, with chair and premier Zamani Saul re-elected.
Limpopo rocked by rigging allegations and NEC probe
Regional conferences in Limpopo were characterised by alleged poll rigging which prompted secretary-general Fikile Mbalula to appoint national executive committee (NEC) member Noxolo Kiviet to probe alleged irregularities at Norman Mashabane, Vhembe and Peter Mokaba regions.
Minor problems in Sekhukhune were resolved, while Waterberg is yet to hold its elections. Gauteng chair Panyaza Lesufi appears safe with no potential challenger yet.
Earlier reports were that Lesufi would try his luck at the NEC, probably to contest for the deputy president position to replace Paul Mashatile.
Leadership ambitions
In the ANC tradition, Mashatile becomes an automatic candidate to replace outgoing President Cyril Ramaphosa in 2027, but the position will likely be hotly contested.
Lesufi’s deputy, Nomantu Nkomo-Ralehoko, whose political star keeps on shining, might rise to replace him as Gauteng boss, but Lebogang Maile has been waiting in the wings to clinch the post.
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Indications were that Mbalula could challenge Mashatile for the number one position. Although national chair Gwede Mantashe hinted that his current term was his last in the top structure, some claimed he would vie for the presidency against Mashatile.
Unlike in the past, the ANC’s top seven positions are fiercely contested. Both the president and deputy posts usually have more than two candidates.
The remaining four – secretary-general, first deputy secretary-general, second deputy secretary-general, and treasurer-general – are often two-horse race positions.
Fluid dynamics in Free State, North West and Mpumalanga
In Mpumalanga, Mandla Ndlovu might run for a second term, but a challenger could emerge. Free State remains fluid after chair Mxolisi Dukwana fell out of favour with the NEC and was demoted from premier to speaker of the provincial legislature.
Both Free State premier MaQueen Letsoha-Mathae and Jabu Mbalula are rumoured to be keen for the position. Eastern Cape chair Oscar Mabuyane is on the way out as he finishes his second term.
Provincial secretary Lulama Ngcukayitobi is preparing to contest to fill the post. But rumours are that Mabuyane could seek a third term.
At the same, Mabuyane is rumoured to be eyeing the Bull’s Eye – to replace Ramaphosa at the top in 2027 in a potentially fierce battle against Mashatile.
In North West, provincial chair Nono Maloyi and his executive want a second term. But Maloyi could be challenged by premier Lazzy Mokgosi for the chair, a move that, if it succeeds, would result in one centre of power in the province.
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Currently, Maloyi, as party principal, is Mokgosi’s boss and oversees his state work. Maloyi did not avail himself for the premier’s post last year and opted to focus on his personal businesses.
But some say he realised he was bound to be marginalised after campaigning for Zweli Mkhize against Ramaphosa at Nasrec in 2022.
Western Cape rebuilds as KZN tries to recover
In the Western Cape, after many years without a provincial structure, the ANC elected a provincial executive committee (PEC) led by Vuyiso Tyhalisisu.
With the return of former SA ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, there is hope the ANC will challenge the DA’s dominance in 2029.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the province is run by an interim provincial task team appointed by Luthuli House after the former PEC performed poorly in the 2024 election.
The party faced embarrassment, finishing third behind Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party and the Inkatha Freedom Party.
With Jeff Radebe serving as provincial convenor and Mike Mabuyakhulu as coordinator, the task team has a difficult assignment to stabilise the province and revitalise the party before an elective provincial conference.
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