The South African rand has started the week in a very different market than where it closed on Friday, with attacks by Israel and the US on Iran rattling traders.
The rand slipped on Friday as traders digested mixed monthly data from the SARB, SARS, and the National Treasury for clues about the health of the economy.
The local unit closed just under R16.00/$, down about 0.3% from earlier in the week.
Data from the South African Reserve Bank showed that M3 money supply growth last month was 7.44%, down from 8.16% in December.
Private sector credit growth for January was 8.83%, well above December’s 8.74% but below the 8.84% estimated in a Reuters poll.
South Africa’s revenue service agency published trade data showing the country recorded a trade surplus of R9.31 billion in January. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a surplus of R4.45 billion.
However, local data became less impactful as the United States and Israel waged war in the Middle East.
Oil prices jumped 7% to their highest levels in months as Iran and Israel stepped up attacks in the Middle East, damaging tankers and disrupting shipments from the key producing region.
Brent crude futures shot up to $82.37, the highest since January 2025, in the first futures trading after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran and killed its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Saturday.
Israel launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran on Sunday, and Iran responded with more missile barrages.
The attacks exposed ships to collateral damage as missiles hit at least three tankers off the Gulf coast and killed one seafarer, shipping sources and officials said on Sunday.
Iran has said it has closed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Asian governments and refiners – key buyers – to assess oil stockpiles.
“With the retaliatory action now evolving to attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the threat on oil supplies has substantially risen,” ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said in a note.
Citi analysts expect Brent to trade between $80 and $90 a barrel this week amid the ongoing conflict.
Meanwhile, currencies firmed, with the safe-haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen rising, while the euro slid as trading resumed after the weekend.
The rand, a more volatile and risky currency, weakened further, trading at R16.08 against the dollar in early trade on Monday.
- USD/ZAR: R16.08
- GBP/ZAR: R21.59
- EUR/ZAR: R18.94
- Gold: $5,349.78
- Oil: $77.40
5 important things happening in South Africa today
Gauteng’s Gautrain: 16 years after it first launched, the Gautrain will be handed over the the Gauteng government as a fully paid asset at the end of the month. The 80-kilometre rail system was originally developed through a public-private partnership, with both government and the private partner jointly managing its operations. The Gauteng government has now fully settled its portion of the Gautrain debt, meaning the system is entirely owned by the province. [EWN]
Gambling crisis: South African consumers are generally in a better financial position now than they were 12 months ago, with rising spending boosting retailer revenue and economic growth. However, there is a major threat to all of this in the form of online gambling, which is beginning to take a growing share of disposable income in South Africa. While some dismissed fears of such a phenomenon, data show that an increasing number of South African households are cutting their spending on basic necessities to play “Vegas-style” online games. [Daily Investor]
Power corruption: Johannesburg power utility City Power has announced the arrest of two contractor employees as part of its anti-corruption operations. The contractors allegedly offered to reverse a customer’s City Power electricity account, which reflected a R149,000 debt, if the customer paid them R46,000. The customer refused to participate in the illegal activity and informed City Power, which, together with the Hawks, set up an operation to catch the contractors red-handed. [MyBroadband]
Tax coming to wreck bookies: The South African Bookmakers Association (SABA) has warned that the National Treasury’s proposal to impose a 20% tax on gambling in South Africa will cause an effective tax rate of nearly 40% for the industry and drive legitimate operators out of business. Operators typically pay a provincial tax of 6.5% of gross profit on online betting and are also liable for 15% VAT on their gross gambling revenue. Treasury hopes to draw in an additional R10 billion in revenue through the tax. [Business Day]
ANC billionaire bid: More questions are arising over a new campaign website, PM27, that quietly launched, which presents itself to be a soft launch for billionaire Patrice Motsepe’s bid for the ANC presidency. Motsepe has repeatedly denied any intentions of gunning for the position. ANC secretary general Fikile Mbalula has distanced the party from the website, saying it is outside of the party’s protocols and lacks Motsepe’s confirmation. [News24]
