South Africans are expected to face higher fuel prices next month as global oil markets react to the escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.
As a result, there have been concerns raised about whether South Africa could face potential fuel shortages due to disruptions in global supply chains and South Africa’s growing reliance on imported fuel.
Responding to these concerns, Robert Maake, Director for Fuel Pricing Mechanism at the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, said the government is closely monitoring the situation and working with industry players to ensure fuel security.
Speaking in an interview, Maake explained that one of the department’s key responsibilities is ensuring the country has a stable supply of fuel.
“One of the responsibilities of the department is to ensure the security of fuel supply in the country,” Maake said.
He added that the department holds regular coordination meetings with stakeholders across the fuel supply chain. These include oil companies, fuel wholesalers, industry associations, and logistics operators.
“What we do is we have a logistics planning team meeting that meets on Wednesday every week,” he said.
“In that meeting, that’s where we develop a contingency plan because all the oil companies are represented there.”
Maake added that the meetings also include representatives from LP gas suppliers, the National Energy Regulator of South Africa, industry bodies such as the Diesel Association of South Africa and the Liquid Fuels Wholesalers Association, as well as Transnet pipelines.
According to Maake, several fuel shipments are already on their way to South Africa to bolster supplies.
“At the moment, I can tell you that we are expecting about six vessels that are coming from different parts of the world, India, West Africa, that are bringing products of different sorts to the country,” he said.
No need to panic – for now
He noted that South Africa’s vulnerability to global oil prices is due to its reliance on imported fuel since the closure of several local refineries in recent years.
This means the country must secure finished petroleum products from international suppliers.
“As you know, our country has been in import mode since the closure of some of our oil refineries. Already there were placements of orders for vessels to bring products into the country,” Maake said.
While tensions in the Middle East have affected some supply routes, he said, oil companies have moved quickly to secure alternative sources.
“The only disruption is some of those vessels that were coming from the country of origin in the Middle East, and those oil companies have already decided on alternative sources like West Africa and so on,” he said.
Despite the concerns raised by industry players about preparedness, Maake stressed that there is currently no reason for panic.
“So I will say as far as we are concerned, there’s no need to panic as far as fuel supply is at the moment,” he said.
He also highlighted the contribution of South Africa’s remaining operational refineries, which continue to provide some local production capacity.
“We know that Astron is on a plant shutdown and it’s coming back next month. They’ve secured the finished product that will come into the country during this period of shutdown, and they’ve also shown that they’ve got enough crude oil when the refinery comes back next month.”
Together with other facilities such as NATREF and Sasol’s Secunda operations, Maake said domestic production remains an important part of the country’s fuel supply mix.
“If you have Astron, NATREF and Sasol Secunda combined, they give us a production of almost 360 million barrels per day,” he said.
Speaking at the Southern Africa Oil and Gas Conference, Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe said the country is in ongoing talks with suppliers to stabilise the domestic supply of oil.
“These engagements are aimed at ensuring uninterrupted fuel availability in the domestic market, without immediately utilising the country’s strategic reserves,” he said.
His comment refers to some 8 million barrels of emergency crude oil held by the country’s Strategic Fuel Fund.
However, he added that while questions remain about potential fuel supply disruptions, the reality is that substantial fuel price increases are increasingly unavoidable in South Africa.
