Five years ago, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk launched his personal Tesla Roadster (and its occupant, a mannequin named Starman) into space.
The historic launch – of the first car propelled into space – took place at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida on 6 February 2018.
As of its fifth launch anniversary, Starman completed nearly 3.3 orbits around the Sun – if it is still in one piece, that is…
Elon Musk’s space Tesla
According to WhereIsRoadster.com, the car’s location at the time of publishing was 327,412,126 km ( approximately 2.189 AU) from Earth.
It is currently moving toward Earth at a speed of 10,173 km/h. The debate is out on whether the Tesla will crash into Earth or not…
Will the space Roadster return to Earth?
Back in 2018, an astrophysicist at the University of Toronto in Canada, Hanno Rein, said the car could potentially crash into the Sun, Venus, or Earth.
Based on his calculations, the odds of colliding with Earth (and hopefully burning out in the atmosphere…) within the next 15 years is 22%. [1]
Make of that what you will…
Tesla Roadster launch
The Tesla Roadster was affixed to a SpaceX Falcon Heavy’s upper stage and launched into an elliptical orbit around the Sun.
True to theatrical form, Starman was dressed in a spacesuit and placed in the Tesla Roadster’s driver’s seat.
The car was able to escape Earth’s gravity by gaining enough velocity to enter Mars’ elliptical heliocentric orbit.
The likelihood of crashing into Mars, however, is low. Instead, the Roadster will continue to orbit the Sun for millions of years to come (maybe).
On a journey around the Sun
In fact, the Roadster’s initial orbit brought it within 1.66 astronomical units (AU) of the Sun – an AU is the distance between the Earth and the Sun.
That means the Roadster passed closer to the Sun than the Earth’s orbit.
Furthermore, this route would eventually take the Roadster (and Starman, of course) towards the orbits of Mars and Jupiter.
That said, the Roadster’s speed and trajectory make it highly unlikely that it will crash into Earth or Mars, or any other planets in the Milky Way, for that matter.
Space debris minefield
One thing’s for sure: if the Tesla is still in one piece, it most certainly won’t be a pretty sight.
Apart from the exposure to the Sun’s extreme temperatures, there’s also the tiny issue of space debris – and there’s a lot of that floating around.
As per statistical models produced by ESA’s space debris office in December 2022, there are some 36 500 objects larger than 10cm floating through space, and 1 million objections measuring between 1 and 10cm. [2]
Humanity truly is a scourge, even in space, with most of the space debris attributed to accidents and failures, and even deliberate destruction.
Interior condition of the car
Meanwhile, Dr Anthony Waas, chair of the aerospace engineering program at the University of Michigan, said the tires would likely be dry-rotted by now.
“Rubber can withstand pretty high temperatures. It’s also thermally cycled; [the] rubber may actually crack or dry up, become brittle,” he explained.
The same can likely be said for the car’s leather interior.
More fun facts
Did you know? The radio was playing Space Oddity in one of Starman’s ‘ears’, and Is there Life On Mars? on the other.
If the battery was still working now, Starman would have heard the songs 496 049 and 668 405 times, respectively.
Another fun fact: Since its launch in 2018, the Roadster exceeded its 36 000-mile warranty (approximately 58 000 kilometres) some 70 040 times!
And lastly, distance-wise, the Roadster has travelled far enough to have driven across all the roads on Earth at least 63.1 times.
Sources:
[1] Space car collision probabilities
[2] Inmarsat, space junk study.
