In the lead-up to what was South Africa’s most competitive election in three decades of its multi-racial democracy, polls provided a mixed bag of predictions of how the results would play out.
BusinessTech looked at the final polls published by Ipsos, the Social Research Foundation, Mark Data (in collaboration with eNCA) and The Economist just before the general election on May 29th and how closely they matched the final result.
Although there was consensus that the African National Congress (ANC) would lose its outright majority, all the polls slightly overpredicted the support that the party would ultimately bring in.
Two decades ago, the African National Congress (ANC) won almost 70% of the vote, dropping to 57.5% in 2019 and just under 40% in 2024 – well short of a parliamentary majority.
The ANC’s spectacular fall from grace (losing over 17.5 percentage points) was wildly underestimated by most polls. This was also the case for the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which also saw a significant drop in support.
On the other hand, the popularity of former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MKP) was underestimated (despite one poll accurately predicting its influence), making it the true wildcard for the election.
While the predictions for the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) also missed the target, their variances were far less pronounced when compared to the ANC and EFF.
Best poll
Polls leading up to elections in South Africa have become increasingly hot topics, given that the country is moving away from one-party dominance to a much more fragmented political system.
The main polls covered ahead of the elections were actually quite close to the mark for some of the parties. Some were spot on.
Looking at the top five parties (ANC, DA, MK, EFF and IFP) as well as the balance (‘other’), the closest poll to the final result was the Social Research Foundation, which had a total deviation of only 7 percentage points.
A deviation of 0 would represent a spot-on call. The larger the deviation, the further away the poll was from the final result.
The second most accurate poll was the Mark Data poll, in association with eNCA, which had a total deviation of 10.2 percentage points.
Notably, the Mark Data poll was the only poll to nail the MK’s popularity and final impact.
Polls vs reality
Note: The polls were designed to capture a snapshot of the sentiments of registered voters towards some of the most notable parties at the time. As a result, individual polling data for many other parties were not included. The purpose of these polls was to gauge voter sentiment rather than to make comprehensive predictions.
Ipsos
Ipsos conducted polling leading up to the 2024 general elections, using a survey of 2,545 representative registered voters. The company has historically been pretty close in its predictions.
The final poll was published by Ipsos on 27 April:
| Party | Ipsos 2024 poll | Final 2024 results | Deviation |
| African National Congress (ANC) | 40.2% | 39.8% | 0.4 pp |
| Democratic Alliance (DA) | 21.9% | 21.8% | 0.1 pp |
| uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MKP) | 8.4% | 14.4% | 6.0 pp |
| Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) | 11.5% | 9.7% | 1.8 pp |
| Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) | 4.4% | 4.1% | 0.3 pp |
| Other | 13.6% | 10.2% | 3.4 pp |
| Total deviation | 12.0 pp |
- ANC and DA: Both the ANC and DA showed minimal deviations from the final Ipsos poll to the actual results (0.4% and 0.1%, respectively), with Ipsos most accurately predicting the two largest parties’s support levels.
- MKP: Ipsos significantly underestimated MKP’s support (by 6%), reflecting a substantial increase in voter turnout or a late swing in support.
- EFF: Ipsos predicted EFF’s support at 11.5% but the party received 9.7%, indicating a 1.8% deviation. This slight decrease in support compared to what Ipsos forecasted could be party attributed to the exponential growth of the MKP.
- IFP and FF+: Both parties had small deviations (0.3% for IFP and 0.4% for FF+), indicating that Ipsos’ predictions were close to their actual results.
- ActionSA: Ipsos substantially overestimated ActionSA’s support by 2.1%, expecting a 3.4% voter pull, but rather receiving just 1.3%.
- Other: The “Other” category saw a 0.9% deviation, largely due to their large discrepancies in the MKP and ActionSA predictions versus outcomes.
Social Research Foundation (SRF)
The SRF conducted extensive polling leading up to the 2024 general elections, surveying 1,835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters.
The final poll, published by the SRF on 27 May, two days before the election, provided insights into voter preferences and anticipated outcomes:
| Party | SRF 2024 poll | Final 2024 results | Deviation |
| African National Congress (ANC) | 42.2% | 39.8% | 2.4 pp |
| Democratic Alliance (DA) | 21.6% | 21.8% | 0.2 pp |
| uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MKP) | 12.4% | 14.4% | 2.0 pp |
| Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) | 10.8% | 9.7% | 1.1 pp |
| Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) | 3.2% | 4.1% | 0.9 pp |
| Other | 9.8% | 10.2% | 0.4 pp |
| Total deviation | 7.0 pp |
- ANC and EFF: Both parties saw their final support lower than predicted by 2.4% and 1.1%, respectively, indicating a decline in their anticipated voter base.
- DA: The DA’s actual results were closely aligned with the final poll, with only a 0.2% deviation, suggesting stability in their electoral support and predictions.
- MKP and IFP: These parties were underestimated in the final poll, with MKP gaining 2% more support and IFP gaining 0.9% more than predicted, reflecting stronger-than-expected voter turnout or shifts in support.
Mark Data (eNCA)
The Mark Data poll, which was conducted in collaboration with eNCA, was one of the most far-off polls compared to the others, except for its predictions of the MKP, which it was spot on about.
Using over 3,000 household interviews, the poll published on 20 May saw:
| Party | Mark Data* 2024 poll | Final 2024 results | Deviation |
| African National Congress (ANC) | 43.4% | 39.8% | 3.6 pp |
| Democratic Alliance (DA) | 18.6% | 21.8% | 3.2 pp |
| uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MKP) | 14.4% | 14.4% | 0.0 pp |
| Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) | 11.4% | 9.7% | 1.7 pp |
| Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) | 3.1% | 4.1% | 1.0 pp |
| Other | 9.1% | 10.2% | 1.1 pp |
| Total deviation | 10.6 pp |
- ANC and DA: Both the ANC and DA showed notable deviations from the final Mark Data poll to the actual results. ANC’s support was overestimated by 3.6%, while DA’s support was underestimated by 3.2%.
- MKP: Mark Data’s prediction for MKP’s support was exact (14.4%), showing no deviation.
- EFF and IFP: EFF’s support was overestimated by 1.7%, while IFP’s support was underestimated by 1%.
- Other: The “Other” category saw a 1.1% deviation, suggesting a slight underestimation of the actual outcome for smaller parties.
The Economist
The Economist tracked voter sentiment from as early as April 2023, ending on 27 May 2024 (two days before the general elections).
| Party | Economist 2024 poll | Final 2024 results | Deviation |
| African National Congress (ANC) | 43% | 39.8% | 3.2 pp |
| Democratic Alliance (DA) | 22% | 21.8% | 0.2 pp |
| uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MKP) | 12% | 14.4% | 2.2 pp |
| Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) | 12% | 9.7% | 2.3 pp |
| Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) | 3.0% | 4.1% | 1.1 pp |
| Other | 8.0% | 10.2% | 2.2 pp |
| Total deviation | 11.2 pp |
- ANC: The Economist’s final poll overestimated ANC’s support by 3.2%, indicating a larger margin of error in predicting ANC’s voter base.
- DA: The DA’s actual results closely mirrored The Economist’s final poll, with a minimal deviation of 0.2%, suggesting accurate prediction of DA’s voter support.
- MKP: The Economist underestimated MKP’s support by 2.2%, indicating a stronger-than-expected performance for the party in the actual election.
- EFF: The Economist’s poll overestimated EFF’s support by 2.3%, with the polls underestimating the chunk of support that the MKP would take from the EFF.
- IFP: The Economist also underestimated IFP’s support by 1.1%.
- Other: The “Other” category saw a deviation of 2.2%, indicating a significant underestimation of the support for smaller parties.
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