Any hope of the National Energy Crisis Committee plans for Eskom will end load shedding were short-circuited by Eskom chief executive André de Ruyter yesterday, who said SA will remain in the dark for the next two years with a risk of load shedding reaching stage 8.
With Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) at “new lows in recent weeks due in large part to the failure of units at Kusile”, De Ruyter warned South Africans should expect continuous stage 2 to stage 3 power cuts for the next 24 months.
Giving an update yesterday, he said available capacity and supply was likely to remain “tight” and constrained through 2023, and higher stages of load shedding could not be ruled out.
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“The possibility of stage 8 load shedding is receding, which is positive,” said De Ruyter. “However, there is always an inherent risk and, for that purpose, we have to protect our diesel reserves.”
De Ruyter also said while municipal debt – now approaching R57 billion – was a major challenge for Eskom, the coal fleet was old and had not been well-maintained and the power utility had continued to discover problems at stations.
“Some of the problems can only be fixed in two years,” he added.
Eskom lauded for transparency
Although Eskom and its management have received a lot of backlash following load shedding’s most intensive year since its inception, some experts have applauded the power utility for being transparent.
“It’s obviously not really what we want to see here, but at least now people can try and prepare accordingly,” Chris Hattingh, senior policy analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis, said.
“I wonder if they’re a bit optimistic because I thought maybe it might take even longer just to do basic maintenance with the power stations and that sort of stuff.
“This doesn’t mean the challenges will go away.
“We’ll have to see if they actually now manage to fix it or not.”
No coherent plan
Action SA president Herman Mashaba, however, rejected the announcement by Eskom and said: “This ludicrous announcement makes it clear that there still is no coherent plan to get us out of this mess nearly 15 years after load shedding began.
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“This announcement directly contradicts that of President Cyril Ramaphosa and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe, who have frequently claimed that load shedding would be a thing of the past in the next six to 12 months,” he added.
“The president and his sidekick are either oblivious to the truth or have blatantly lied to the nation.
“Either way, they clearly have no grip on this crisis and no plan to address it.”
Mantashe’s obsession with coal
Mashaba said a large contributor to permanent load shedding was Mantashe’s obsession with coal “and his rejection of lower cost renewables that would be quicker to market”.
“Since Mantashe took over the energy department nearly four years ago, not a single publicly procured megawatt has been added to the grid. This is unforgiveable.”
Eskom chair Mpho Makwana said the power utility aimed to deliver some degree of predictability while the company executes its turnaround plan. “It will take two years to reach the desirable Energy Availability Factor (70%) at Eskom’s coal fleet,” said Makwana.
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