Former Andre de Ruyter has warned that Eskom is fully aware that South Africa is heading toward a power crisis unless urgent action is taken.
He shared this information during a discussion organised by the Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford.
De Ruyter explained that the country is currently benefiting from a temporary “window of opportunity,” with load shedding largely suspended due to a mix of factors.
He added that this stability is largely due to “very competent and capable system operators” at Eskom who have kept the grid intact.
He noted that several developments have contributed to the improved situation, including private sector investment and Eskom’s own recovery efforts.
“We know that the private sector has invested enormously in its own generation, to the tune of between 6 and 7 gigawatts of rooftop capacity, which is huge. It’s twice the size of a large coal-fired power station, and that was done in the space of about 18 months,” he said.
Alongside this, maintenance projects initiated during his tenure and the completion of previously unfinished power units have helped ease pressure on the system.
However, de Ruyter stressed that this improvement should not be mistaken for a permanent solution. He pointed to Eskom’s own forecasts as evidence of looming trouble.
“Eskom knows because it recently published the medium-term system adequacy outlook report, which is required by law,” he said.
“In that, it says there is an enhanced risk of load shedding from 2029 onwards as coal-fired power stations are retired. So we know there’s a cliff approaching.”
Because of this, de Ruyter stressed that this creates a narrowing gap in which new generation capacity must be added quickly.
He argued that the solution is clear. “The only technology that is both competitive and can be deployed within this time horizon is really renewable energy and battery storage,” he said.
De Ruyter dismissed alternative energy options as either too slow, too expensive, or impractical for South Africa’s needs.
“You can wish for 10 nuclear power stations, but we all know that nuclear takes forever to complete, and has the tendency to be extraordinarily expensive with huge cost overruns. They just don’t deliver on time in a predictable way,” he said.
He added that coal is no longer a viable option either, noting that even major financiers are moving away from funding new coal projects.
Gas, meanwhile, presents its own challenges. “South Africa has no domestic gas resources, so we’d have to import gas… which makes gas very, very expensive,” he said.
While renewable energy has historically faced criticism for its intermittency, de Ruyter said this is no longer a decisive drawback.
“Renewable energy is intermittent—it only works when the sun shines, and the wind blows—but battery costs have come down to the point where it’s now really possible to render renewable energy dispatchable using storage and still be competitive,” he explained.
He described this moment as a turning point not just for South Africa but for the world.
“I think it is the first time ever that we are in a position where we’ve got a credible zero-carbon alternative on the table that is competitive and does not rely on subsidies,” he said.
For de Ruyter stressed that the opportunity is there, the logic is sound, the technology is there—it’s now a question of implementation.
“What we shouldn’t do is to dither and dawdle and delay. We should do it now. I see absolutely no reason why we should wait any longer,” he said.
