Here is the expected petrol price for June – BusinessTech

South African fuel users are finally in for a bit of a break in June, but the good news is being undercut by the end of the government’s tax relief provided in April and May.

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows relative stability in fuel price recoveries after two months of extreme volatility.

Petrol price recoveries have moved to a relatively neutral position on the back of a resilient rand, and oil prices are sticking to a smaller range, albeit firmly above $100 a barrel.

Because of this stability—at least, relative to previous months—petrol price recoveries are currently between -13 and -19 cents per litre—a far stretch from the steep under-recoveries in April and May.

Diesel prices have shown a much more positive swing, though they still reflect market volatility.

After cumulative hikes of almost R13 per litre over the past two months, diesel recoveries have swung widely into an over-recovery of between R3.52 and R4.41 per litre.

This reflects a significant price recovery, which should bring welcome relief.

These are the recoveries at mid-month

• Petrol 93: increase of 13 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of 19 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of R4.41 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of R3.52 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of R4.37 per litre

Global oil markets remain in limbo, with prices poised for a weekly gain as the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

Efforts to end the war in Iran are going nowhere, and disruptions that have upended global markets are set to linger.

The only solace for recoveries is that prices are stable relative to the last two months, after the shock of the global price jumping from around $60 a barrel to as high as $120 a barrel, and now settled.

However, the International Energy Agency warned that the war has driven global oil inventories down at a record pace.

It said the market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October, even if hostilities end next month.

This could see oil prices rise further in the coming months, with some projections suggesting they could exceed $120 a barrel this year.

Should this happen, diesel recoveries may swing in the opposite direction again in the future.

Fortunately, the rand/dollar exchange rate is a more optimistic story, with the rand showing significant resilience amid the war and prevailing conditions.

While the unit has retreated from the stronger position under R16/$ earlier in the year, it has not moved past R17/$ on a sustained basis.

Instead, the rand has remained in a middling range around R16.50/$, having weakened to around R16.60/$ in the wake of poor jobs data published this week and a stronger dollar.

The dollar is firmer as markets await the outcome of meetings between the United States and China.

The major downside for fuel prices in June

While oil recoveries and the rand/dollar exchange are more positive for motorists in June, the good news will be undercut by the end of the National Treasury’s fuel levy relief.

Treasury announced a R3.00 per litre cut to fuel levies for petrol and diesel for April 2026, extending the relief to R3.93 per litre for diesel in May.

However, from June, 50% of this relief will be added back to prices, with the full amount restored in July.

Because of 50% of the fuel levy relief being added back in June, the daily recoveries don’t reflect the full picture of the expected adjustments for the month.

While diesel price recoveries will remain in the black, they will be effectively halved, taking a projected R4/litre cut to around R2/litre.

Petrol price recoveries, meanwhile, will be pushed deeper into the red, making what would have been a ~15-cent per litre hike a ~R1.65 per litre hike.

The adjustments also do not factor in any impact from the slate levy, which may also impact final pricing.

The table below outlines how the June fuel prices could be impacted by their return.

This is how the price changes will reflect at the pumps, including the partial fuel levy being added back into the price.

Note: the above only considers the fuel levy being added back in June, as well as the current recovery data. It does not consider changes to the slate levy, which may also affect final pricing.