Energy experts have warned that South Africa should not be lulled into a false sense of security by the current pause in load shedding.
They say the risk of power cuts returning by the end of the decade remains high unless urgent action is taken.
Eskom’s Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook for 2026 to 2030, published in October 2025, warned that load shedding is likely to return.
In its report, Eskom used the term ‘unserved energy’ instead of ‘load shedding’ to refer to rolling blackouts.
Officially, unserved energy refers to electricity demand from customers that the power system cannot supply. Simply put, it is a blackout.
The Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook for 2026 to 2030 indicated a high likelihood of load shedding in 2029 and 2030.
Eskom explained that generation inadequacy is the primary driver of unserved energy across scenarios and years.
It said unserved energy levels start to increase in 2029, driven by the retirement of 5.26 GW of coal capacity.
In simple terms, shutting down coal-fired power stations will introduce a temporary supply gap and push unserved energy upwards.
Speaking in an interview with BizNews, Synthesis Power Solutions director and energy expert Thomas Garner said that while the country is currently focused on other crises, the structural problems in the electricity sector remain unresolved.
“Load shedding has dissipated. It’s given some reprieve to the public. And, of course, as soon as that happens, then people think that the challenges are over,” he said.
“However, our challenges are systemic, and it is also a result of the monopolistic nature of Eskom.”
Garner was responding to Eskom’s report, which warned that load shedding could return in 2029.
He said the primary risk stems from the planned decommissioning of ageing coal-fired power stations at the same time that electricity demand is expected to rise.
South Africa’s only option
The old coal-fired power stations that need to be decommissioned include Camden Power Station, Grootvlei Power Station and Hendrina Power Station.
Garner said these three power stations are big contributors to the grid, but we can’t rely on them post-2029.
Additionally, he noted that the government is pushing for economic growth, which will inevitably push up electricity demand.
“So if your demand increases, at the same time that your supply is dwindling… then you’ve got this challenge of a supply-demand imbalance, which could lead to further load shedding,” Garner said.
He argued that building new coal-fired power stations is no longer a viable solution, both because of cost and time constraints.
“Coal-fired power, in my view, is a challenge because power stations take 15 years to build, and that’s actually not something we should consider,” he said.
On nuclear energy, Garner said that while recent international projects show it can be delivered on time, the long lead times remain a major obstacle.
“Nuclear typically takes 15 to 20 years from inception to commissioning,” he said.
Even if South Africa built new plants near the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station and at Thyspunt in the Eastern Cape, it would only add around 3.6 GW over two decades.
He added that gas-to-power has potential but faces fuel supply and infrastructure hurdles, highlighting the constraints linked to fields in Mozambique and the need for new import terminals and environmental approvals.
Given these realities, Garner believes renewables and battery storage offer the fastest path to new capacity.
“In the last four years in South Africa, we’ve seen probably six to eight gigawatts of behind-the-meter solar being built,” he said.
“If you compare that to 3.6 gigawatts of nuclear that we can build in 15 to 20 years, that’s what the private sector has built.” He stressed that battery energy storage is crucial to improving the grid.
“A way to increase grid capacity is to put batteries at certain grid points, which then allows us to generate with renewables when there is a resource like wind and sun, but evacuate electricity from those batteries when there isn’t.”
Garner acknowledged improvements at Eskom under its current leadership, including higher plant availability and reduced diesel usage.
“There are lots of positives at Eskom. We don’t have load shedding, and we’ve seen an increase in maintenance,” he said.
However, he warned that unless South Africa accelerates grid expansion, embraces renewables and storage, and fully unbundles the electricity sector, the return of load shedding by 2029 remains a very real possibility.
