South African meat lovers can expect prices to continue to rocket for at least the next three months, as the outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease continues to wreak havoc in the country’s feedlots.
According to economists at Nedbank, South Africa’s latest inflation reading of 3.6% was in line with expectations, but flagged meat prices as an outlier.
Meat prices increased by 12.6% year-on-year in December 2025, contributing 0.6% to the overall headline inflation rate.
According to the latest Braai Index compiled earlier this month, the year-on-year price of the basket increased by 0.7% compared to December 2024, primarily driven by rising meat prices.
Beef prices increased by 21%, while sausage prices grew by nearly 12%. However, these price hikes were balanced out by notable decreases in potato and onion prices.
Nedbank noted that meat prices are not only high but are rising at a disturbing pace.
They warned that, on top of the past six months or so of large increases, consumers can expect double-digit meat price inflation to last until roughly April 2026.
This will put pressure on food inflation in particular, and headline inflation generally.
“Food inflation will be driven primarily by meat prices, given the ongoing impact of foot-and-mouth disease. Progress in the rollout of vaccinations has been slow, frustrated by a shortage of vaccines,” the banks said.
Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals such as cattle, sheep, and goats, and is spread through direct contact and contaminated feed.
An outbreak was recorded in May 2025 at the country’s biggest feedlot, and farmers and the national government have struggled to contain it since.
While FMD is not a public health risk and cannot be transmitted to humans, it poses a severe threat to production and farming, which carries huge economic consequences.
The government addressed the outbreak by implementing a plan to safeguard the country’s livestock and restore South Africa’s reputation in the agricultural sector.
“We are prioritising high-risk zones, with the goal of reaching at least 80% coverage in targeted cattle populations, especially the communal areas and up to 100% in feedlots and dairy cows,” said Minister of Agriculture John Steenhuisen.
The government’s strategy aims to reduce outbreak incidence in high-risk provinces by over 70% within 12 months through systematic vaccination, while maintaining FMD-free provinces with buffer vaccination and strict movement controls.
Vaccination drive
Earlier this month, the government reported that the current outbreak began in 2021 when animals migrated from Phalaborwa to KwaZulu-Natal.
The Northern Cape is the only province that has not reported an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to date.
The Minister of Agriculture confirmed that since the recent outbreaks, nearly two million animals have been vaccinated.
The outbreaks that have occurred in South Africa so far are documented as follows:
- SAT2 FMD outbreaks have occurred in KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, North West, Gauteng, and the Free State.
- A SAT1 FMD outbreak was reported in KwaZulu-Natal.
- Both SAT3 FMD and SAT2 FMD outbreaks have been identified in the Eastern Cape.
- The Western Cape reported one outbreak; a targeted active surveillance program commenced in May 2025.
- Limpopo experienced SAT3 FMD outbreaks on eight properties in 2021, with three additional outbreaks recently reported.
Outbreaks of FMD have been reported in eight of the nine provinces in South Africa, with KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, Free State, and North West being the hardest hit.
The government stressed the ongoing vaccination campaigns in response to the outbreak, with immediate effect.
“Interventions include the immediate mass vaccination across affected districts, which will be repeated within three months – 100% vaccination of feedlots and dairy cows; 90% commercial and 80% of communal animals,” said Steenhuisen.
In areas with recurring infections, such as parts of Mpumalanga and Limpopo, where buffalo farming is increasing, biannual campaigns will be launched at these border hotspots, and vaccination will continue in the protection zone.
Biannual vaccinations will be conducted in the Eastern Cape, along with increased surveillance in local markets and slaughterhouses in all provinces.
