While official inflation has eased, many South Africans are still struggling with shrinking buying power and stubbornly high grocery prices.
The growing anxiety as South Africans stare at grocery slips is not surprising.
The perception that supermarket prices seem permanently stuck in overdrive is not entirely wrong, despite average inflation figures feeling deceptively softer than people are seeing at the till.
Consumers feel the pressure at supermarket tills
Many households do not experience price increases through economic models or broad statistical baskets, but through the same handful of products bought week after week suddenly costing significantly more than a few years ago.
If a consumer had R10 in 2021, that same amount would buy considerably less by March 2026 due to the cumulative effect of inflation over several years.
Inflation averaged about 4.6% in 2021, climbed sharply to 6.9% in 2022 during fuel and food price increases, and remained elevated at 6% in 2023 before easing through 2024, 2025 and early 2026.
Because inflation compounds annually, each year’s price increases build on the previous year’s higher base.
Buying power has eroded sharply
Based on cumulative inflation over the period, goods that cost R10 in 2021 would cost roughly R13.30 by March 2026.
In real terms, the original R10 would have the purchasing power of only about R7.50 in today’s prices.
However, the 30% erosion in buying power is skewed because food inflation has in some categories seen runaway increases of up to 100% since 2021.
This year alone, a popular cereal brand rocketed from around R50 at the end of 2025 to almost R75 in less than a handful of months, and a pack of 120g popular brand potato chips increased from R21 to R26.99 in around two months.
Prices are sticky to come down
It doesn’t add up, but economist Dawie Roodt said inflation calculations work across a broad range of goods and services, meaning some products can climb sharply, even while overall inflation shows that pricing is relatively contained.
“Inflation is defined as the general increase in the price level,” Roodt said, adding that consumers are also right in feeling that prices rarely retreat with the same enthusiasm they rise.
But a drop in energy prices should not create false hope.
“Prices are sticky to come down, but go up easier,” Roodt said.
While fuel and fresh produce often fluctuate, many branded and processed products behave differently.
Tomato prices may collapse after seasonal shortages ease, but tomato sauce prices do not necessarily drop alongside them.
However, difficult economic cycles are not new and conditions will improve.
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