South Africa’s National Treasury signalled it has little room to mitigate against the impact of a looming fuel-price shock stemming from the war in the Middle East.
The price of crude has jumped more than 40% to over $100 a barrel since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, disrupting shipping and production.
It would cost the government tens of millions of rand to offset the knock-on effect on gasoline and diesel costs, said Duncan Pieterse, the Treasury’s director-general.
“Unless you have those kinds of resources, which currently we do not have available as part of our fiscal buffers, you are either looking at no relief, or you’re looking at a very small amount of relief,” he told a conference hosted by Stanlib Asset Management in Johannesburg on Wednesday.
South Africa temporarily reduced its general fuel levy by R1.50 a litre in 2022 to help offset a jump in prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
If any relief were to be provided, a similar template would be used and the package would be limited, temporary and funded within the existing fiscal framework, Pieterse said.
The Treasury estimates that it collected about R97 billion from the fuel levy in the 2025-26 financial year.
